UK government bonds, known as “Gilts”, are financial borrowing instruments that the government uses to finance the deficit, the difference between government spending and tax receipts. Over the last 30 years, this market has undergone many changes, responding both to technological advances and to economic circumstances. At the same time, rapid developments in financial economic theory have greatly enhanced the understanding of how financial market prices reflect economic conditions. In this lecture, Professor Steeley will explore how mathematical and statistical techniques have been developed and applied to UK bond prices to provide greater insight into current economic conditions and likely future economic conditions. These techniques also reveal the resilience of the market to its structural changes in the recent past, to the fall-out from financial crises, and to its recent experience as the means to undertake quantitative easing.
Professor Jim Steeley re-joined Keele in January 2016, as Professor of Finance. Prior to this, he was the Lloyds Bank Chair and Professor of Finance at Aston Business School and before that, Professor of Finance at the University of Stirling. Earlier in my career, he held academic positions at Cardiff Business School and Keele University, where he was the first appointment in the field of financial markets. During the mid- 1990s he worked for the Bank of England, where I managed a research team developing techniques to interpret financial market prices for use in monetary policy advice, and techniques to improve the pricing of UK government debt issues. He has been a visitor at many other universities, including the Financial Markets Group at the London School of Economics, the Isaac Newton Institute of Mathematical Sciences at Cambridge University, the Technical University of Ostrava in the Czech Republic, Washington University in St. Louis, Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Kent State University in Ohio and the University of Central Florida in Orlando.
Professor Steeley’s research is in the areas of financial markets and investments, with a long standing interest in the estimation and modelling of the interest rates implicit in UK government bonds prices, and in the modelling of the effects of exogenous and endogenous changes in the microstructure of this market. He has also undertaken research on each of equity, futures and options markets, with a particular emphasis on the dynamic properties of the market prices and the information revealed by these dynamics. He also has an active research programme in the area of financial market microstructure looking at information aggregation, the measurement and pricing of liquidity and the effects of investor behaviours. His research has been published in leading academic journals in Finance and Economics, including the Journal of Finance, the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, the Journal of Banking and Finance and the Journal of International Money and Finance. He has made numerous presentations of his research at leading international conferences including the American Finance Association and the Royal Economic Society. I am on the editorial board of the academic journals Studies in Economics and Finance and the International Journal of Behavioural Accounting and Finance. I am also on the editorial board of the research section of the Securities and Investments Review, which is the quarterly journal of the Chartered Institute of Securities and Investments. In 2014 I was elected to the executive committee of the Conference of Professors in Accounting and Finance. In 2015, he was awarded a Senior Fellowship of the Higher Education Academy.